list2-第40部分
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value of the agricultural products which are exported； and that
thereby at times suddenly an extraordinary exportation of precious
metals is occasioned； whereby the economy of the agricultural
nation； especially if its internal interchange is chiefly based on
paper circulation； falls into confusion； and national calamities
are the result。
The popular theory maintains that if we provide ourselves with
the precious metals in the same manner as every other article； it
is in the main indifferent whether large or small quantities of
precious metals are in circulation； as it merely depends on the
relation of the price of any article in exchange whether that
article shall be cheap or dear； a derangement in the rate of
exchange acts simply like a premium on a larger exportation of
goods from that country； in favour of which it oscillates from time
to time： consequently the stock of metallic money and the balance
between the imports and exports； as well as all the other
economical circumstances of the nation； would regulate themselves
in the safest and best manner by the operation of the natural
course of things。
This argument is perfectly correct as respects the internal
interchange of a nation； it is demonstrated in the commercial
intercourse between town and town； between town and country
districts； between province and province； as in the union between
State and State。 Any political economist would be deserving of pity
who believed that the balance of the mutual imports and exports
between the various states of the American Union or the German
Zollverein； or between England； Scotland； and Ireland； can be
regulated better through State regulations and laws than through
free interchange。 On the hypothesis that a similar union existed
between the various states and nations of the earth； the argument
of the theory of trusting to the natural course of things would be
quite consistent。 Nothing； however； is more contrary to experience
than to suppose under the existing conditions of the world that in
international exchange things act with similar effect。
The imports and exports of independent nations are regulated
and controlled at present not by what the popular theory calls the
natural course of things； but mostly by the commercial policy and
the power of the nation； by the influence of these on the
conditions of the world and on foreign countries and peoples； by
colonial possessions and internal credit establishments； or by war
and peace。 Here； accordingly； all conditions shape themselves in an
entirely different manner than between societies which are united
by political； legal； and administrative bonds in a state of
unbroken peace and of perfect unity of interests。
Let us take into consideration as an example the conditions
between England and North America。 If England from time to time
throws large masses of manufactured goods on to the North American
market； if the Bank of England stimulates or restricts； in an
extraordinary degree； the exports to North America and the credit
granted to her by its raising or lowering its discount rates； if；
in addition to and as a consequence of this extraordinary glut of
the American market for manufactured goods； it happens that the
English manufactured goods can be obtained cheaper in North America
than in England； nay； sometimes much below the cost price of
production； if thus North America gets into a state of perpetual
indebtedness and of an unfavourable condition of exchange towards
England； yet would this disorganised state of things readily
rectify itself under a state of perfectly unrestricted exchange
between the two countries。 North America produces tobacco； timber；
corn； and all sorts of means of subsistence very much cheaper than
England does。 The more English manufactured goods go to North
America； the greater are the means and inducements to the American
planter to produce commodities of value sufficient to exchange for
them； the more credit is given to him the greater is the impulse to
procure for himself the means of discharging his liabilities； the
more the rate of exchange on England is to the disadvantage of
North America； the greater is the inducement to export American
agricultural products； and hence the more successful will be the
competition of the American agriculturist in the English produce
market。
In consequence of these exportations the adverse rate of
exchange would speedily rectify itself； indeed； it could not even
reach any very unfavourable point； because the certain anticipation
in North America that the indebtedness which had been contracted
through the large importation of manufactured goods in the course
of the present year； would equalise itself through the surplus
production and increased exports of the coming year； would be
followed by easier accommodation in the money market and in credit。
Such would be the state of things if the interchange between
the English manufacturer and the American agriculturist were as
little restricted as the interchange between the English
manufacturer and the Irish agriculturist is。 But they are and must
be different： if England imposes a duty on American tobacco of from
five hundred to one thousand per cent； if she renders the
importation of American timber impossible by her tariffs； and
admits the American means of subsistence only in the event of
famine； for at present the American agricultural production cannot
balance itself with the American consumption of English
manufactured goods； nor can the debt incurred for those goods be
liquidated by agricultural products； at present the American
exports to England are limited by narrow bounds； while the English
exports to North America are practically unlimited； the rate of
exchange between both countries under such circumstances cannot
equalise itself； and the indebtedness of America towards England
must be discharged by exports of bullion to the latter country。
These exports of bullion； however； as they undermine the
American system of paper circulation； necessarily lead to the ruin
of the credit of the American banks； and therewith to general
revolutions in the prices of landed property and of the goods in
circulation； and especially to those general confusions of prices
and credit which derange and overturn the economy of the nation；
and with which； we may observe； that the North American free States
are visited whenever they have found them selves unable to restore
a balance between their imports and their exports by S tate tariff
regulations。
It cannot afford any great consolation to the North American
that in consequence of bankruptcies and diminished consumption； the
imports and exports between both countries are at a later period
restored to a tolerable proportion to one another。 For the
destruction and convulsions of commerce and in credit； as well as
the reduction in consumption； are attended with disadvantages to
the welfare and happiness of individuals and to public order； from
which one cannot very quickly recover and the frequent repetition
of which must necessarily leave permanently； ruinous consequences。
Still less can it afford any consolation to the North
Americans； if the popular theory maintains that it is an
indifferent matter whether large or small quantities of precious
metals are in circulation； that we exchange products merely for
products； whether this exchange is made by means of large or small
quantities of metallic circulation is of no importance to
individuals。 To the producer or proprietor it certainly may be of
no consequence whether the object of his production or of his
possession is worth 100 centimes or 100 francs； provided always
that he can procure with the 100 centimes as large a quantity of
objects of necessity and of enjoyment as he can with the 100
francs。 But low or high prices are thus a matter of indifference
only in case they remain on the same footing uninterruptedly for a
long period of time。
If； however； they fluctuate frequently and violently；
disarrangements arise which throw the economy of every individual；
as well as that of society； into confusion。 Whoever has purchased
raw materials at high prices； cannot under low prices； by the sale
of his manufactured article； realise again that sum in precious
metals which his raw materials have cost him。 Whoever has bought at
high p
