war of the classes-第16部分

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importation　of　plain　goods　by　121　per　cent　in　quantity　and　59。5　per

cent　in　value；　while　that　of　England　and　India　combined　has

decreased　13。75　per　cent　in　quantity　and　8　per　cent　in　value。　　Lord

Charles　Beresford；　from　whose　〃Break…up　of　China〃　these　figures　are

taken；　states　that　English　yarn　has　receded　and　Indian　yarn　advanced

to　the　front。　　In　1897；　140；000　piculs　of　Indian　yarn　were　imported；

18；000　of　Japanese；　4500　of　Shanghai…manufactured；　and　700　of

English。



Japan；　who　but　yesterday　emerged　from　the　mediaeval　rule　of　the

Shogunate　and　seized　in　one　fell　swoop　the　scientific　knowledge　and

culture　of　the　Occident；　is　already　today　showing　what　wisdom　she

has　acquired　in　the　production　of　surplus　value；　and　is　preparing

herself　that　she　may　tomorrow　play　the　part　to　Asia　that　England　did

to　Europe　one　hundred　years　ago。　　That　the　difference　in　the　world's

affairs　wrought　by　those　one　hundred　years　will　prevent　her

succeeding　is　manifest；　but　it　is　equally　manifest　that　they　cannot

prevent　her　playing　a　leading　part　in　the　industrial　drama　which　has

commenced　on　the　Eastern　stage。　　Her　imports　into　the　port　of

Newchang　in　1891　amounted　to　but　22；000　taels；　but　in　1897　they　had

increased　to　280；000　taels。　　In　manufactured　goods；　from　matches；

watches；　and　clocks　to　the　rolling　stock　of　railways；　she　has

already　given　stiff　shocks　to　her　competitors　in　the　Asiatic

markets；　and　this　while　she　is　virtually　yet　in　the　equipment　stage

of　production。　　Erelong　she；　too；　will　be　furnishing　her　share　to

the　growing　mass　of　the　world's　capital。



As　regards　Great　Britain；　the　giant　trader　who　has　so　long

overshadowed　Asiatic　commerce；　Lord　Charles　Beresford　says：　　〃But

competition　is　telling　adversely；　the　energy　of　the　British　merchant

is　being　equalled　by　other　nationals。　。　。　The　competition　of　the

Chinese　and　the　introduction　of　steam　into　the　country　are　also

combining　to　produce　changed　conditions　in　China。〃　　But　far　more

ominous　is　the　plaintive　note　he　sounds　when　he　says：　　〃New

industries　must　be　opened　up；　and　I　would　especially　direct　the

attention　of　the　Chambers　of　Commerce　（British）　to　。　。　。　the　fact

that　the　more　the　native　competes　with　the　British　manufacturer　in

certain　classes　of　trade；　the　more　machinery　he　will　need；　and　the

orders　for　such　machinery　will　come　to　this　country　if　our　machinery

manufacturers　are　enterprising　enough。〃



The　Orient　is　beginning　to　show　what　an　important　factor　it　will

become；　under　Western　supervision；　in　the　creation　of　surplus　value。

Even　before　the　barriers　which　restrain　Western　capital　are　removed；

the　East　will　be　in　a　fair　way　toward　being　exploited。　　An　analysis

of　Lord　Beresford's　message　to　the　Chambers　of　Commerce　discloses；

first；　that　the　East　is　beginning　to　manufacture　for　itself；　and；

second；　that　there　is　a　promise　of　keen　competition　in　the　West　for

the　privilege　of　selling　the　required　machinery。　　The　inexorable

query　arises：　　WHAT　IS　THE　WEST　TO　DO　WHEN　IT　HAS　FURNISHED　THIS

MACHINERY？　　And　when　not　only　the　East；　but　all　the　now　undeveloped

countries；　confront；　with　surplus　products　in　their　hands；　the　old

industrial　nations；　capitalistic　production　will　have　attained　its

maximum　development。



But　before　that　time　must　intervene　a　period　which　bids　one　pause

for　breath。　　A　new　romance；　like　unto　none　in　all　the　past；　the

economic　romance；　will　be　born。　　For　the　dazzling　prize　of　world…

empire　will　the　nations　of　the　earth　go　up　in　harness。　　Powers　will

rise　and　fall；　and　mighty　coalitions　shape　and　dissolve　in　the　swift

whirl　of　events。　　Vassal　nations　and　subject　territories　will　be

bandied　back　and　forth　like　so　many　articles　of　trade。　　And　with　the

inevitable　displacement　of　economic　centres；　it　is　fair　to　presume

that　populations　will　shift　to　and　fro；　as　they　once　did　from　the

South　to　the　North　of　England　on　the　rise　of　the　factory　towns；　or

from　the　Old　World　to　the　New。　　Colossal　enterprises　will　be

projected　and　carried　through；　and　combinations　of　capital　and

federations　of　labor　be　effected　on　a　cyclopean　scale。

Concentration　and　organization　will　be　perfected　in　ways　hitherto

undreamed。　　The　nation　which　would　keep　its　head　above　the　tide　must

accurately　adjust　supply　to　demand；　and　eliminate　waste　to　the　last

least　particle。　　Standards　of　living　will　most　likely　descend　for

millions　of　people。　　With　the　increase　of　capital；　the　competition

for　safe　investments；　and　the　consequent　fall　of　the　interest　rate；

the　principal　which　today　earns　a　comfortable　income　would　not　then

support　a　bare　existence。　　Saving　toward　old　age　would　cease　among

the　working　classes。　　And　as　the　merchant　cities　of　Italy　crashed

when　trade　slipped　from　their　hands　on　the　discovery　of　the　new

route　to　the　Indies　by　way　of　the　Cape　of　Good　Hope；　so　will　there

come　times　of　trembling　for　such　nations　as　have　failed　to　grasp　the

prize　of　world…empire。　　In　that　given　direction　they　will　have

attained　their　maximum　development；　before　the　whole　world；　in　the

same　direction；　has　attained　its。　　There　will　no　longer　be　room　for

them。　　But　if　they　can　survive　the　shock　of　being　flung　out　of　the

world's　industrial　orbit；　a　change　in　direction　may　then　be　easily

effected。　　That　the　decadent　and　barbarous　peoples　will　be　crushed

is　a　fair　presumption；　likewise　that　the　stronger　breeds　will

survive；　entering　upon　the　transition　stage　to　which　all　the　world

must　ultimately　come。



This　change　of　direction　must　be　either　toward　industrial

oligarchies　or　socialism。　　Either　the　functions　of　private

corporations　will　increase　till　they　absorb　the　central　government；

or　the　functions　of　government　will　increase　till　it　absorbs　the

corporations。　　Much　may　be　said　on　the　chance　of　the　oligarchy。

Should　an　old　manufacturing　nation　lose　its　foreign　trade；　it　is

safe　to　predict　that　a　strong　effort　would　be　made　to　build　a

socialistic　government；　but　it　does　not　follow　that　this　effort

would　be　successful。　　With　the　moneyed　class　controlling　the　State

and　its　revenues　and　all　the　means　of　subsistence；　and　guarding　its

own　interests　with　jealous　care；　it　is　not　at　all　impossible　that　a

strong　curb　could　be　put　upon　the　masses　till　the　crisis　were　past。

It　has　been　done　before。　　There　is　no　reason　why　it　should　not　be

done　again。　　At　the　close　of　the　last　century；　such　a　movement　was

crushed　by　its　own　folly　and　immaturity。　　In　1871　the　soldiers　of

the　economic　rulers　stamped　out；　root　and　branch；　a　whole　generation

of　militant　socialists。



Once　the　crisis　were　past；　the　ruling　class；　still　holding　the　curb

in　order　to　make　itself　more　secure；　would　proceed　to　readjust

things　and　to　balance　consumption　with　production。　　Having　a

monopoly　of　the　safe　investments；　the　great　masses　of　unremunerative

capital　would　be　directed；　not　to　the　production　of　more　surplus

value；　but　to　the　making　of　permanent　improvements；　which　would　give

employment　to　the　people；　and　make　them　content　with　the　new　order

of　things。　　Highways；　parks；　public　buildings；　monuments；　could　be

builded；　nor　would　it　be　out　of　place　to　give　better　factories　and

homes　to　the　workers。　　Such　in　itself　would　be　socialistic；　save

that　it　would　be　done　by　the　oligarchs；　a　class　apart。　　With　the

interest　rate　down　to　zero；　and　no　field　for　the　investment　of

sporadic　capital；　savings　among　the　people　would　utterly　cease；　and

old…age　pensions　be　granted　as　a　matter　of　course。　　It　is　also　a

logical　necessity　of　such　a　system　that；　when　the　population　began

to　press　against　the　means　of　subsistence；　（expansion　being

impossible）；　the　birth　rate　of　the　lower　classes　would　be　lessened。

Whether　by　their　own　initiative；　or　by　the　interference　of　the

rulers；　it　would　have　to　be　done；　and　it　would　be　done。　　In　other

words；　the　oligarchy　would　mean　the　capitalization　of　labor　and　the

enslavement　of　the　whole　population。　　But　it　would　be　a　fairer；

juster　form　of　slavery　than　any　the　world　has　yet　seen。　　The　per

capita　wage　and　consumption　would　be　increased；　and；　with　a

stringent　control　of　the　birth　rate；　there　is　no　reason　why　such　a

country　should　not　be　so　ruled　through　many　generations。



On　the　other　hand；　as　the　capitalistic　exploitation　of　the　planet

approaches　its　maximum；　and　countries　are　crowded　out　of　the　field

of　foreign　exchanges；　there　is　a　large　likelihood　that　their　change

in　direction　will　be　toward　socialism。　　Were　the　theory　of

collective　ownership　and　operation　then　to　arise　for　the　first　time；

such　a　movement　would　stand　small　chance　of　success。　　But　such　is

not　the　case。　　The　doctrine　of　socialism　has　flourished　and　grown

throughout　the　nineteenth　century；　its　tenets　have　been　preached

wherever　the　interests　of　labor　and　capital　have　clashed；　and　it　has

received　exemplification　time　and　again　by　the　State's　assumption　of

functions　which　had　always　belonged　solely　to　the　individual。



When　capitalistic　production　has　a