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it　is　in　the　nature　of　things　that　this　evil　should　rise　to　a　point



when　it　will　become　intolerable　to　those　two　nations　themselves；



and　when　incorporation　with　a　larger　nationality　must　seem



desirable　and　necessary　to　them。



　　　　Belgium　can　only　remedy　by　means　of　confederation　with　a



neighbouring　larger　nation　her　needs　which　are　inseparable　from　her



restricted　territory　and　population。　The　United　States　and　Canada；



the　more　their　population　increases；　and　the　more　the　protective



system　of　the　United　States　is　developed；　so　much　the　more　will



they　feel　themselves　drawn　towards　one　another；　and　the　less　will



it　be　possible　for　England　to　prevent　a　union　between　them。



　　　　As　respects　their　economy；　nations　have　to　pass　through　the



following　stages　of　development：　original　barbarism；　pastoral



condition；　agricultural　condition；　agricultural…manufacturing



condition；　and　agricultural…manufacturing…commercial　condition。



　　　　The　industrial　history　of　nations；　and　of　none　more　clearly



than　that　of　England；　proves　that　the　transition　from　the　savage



state　to　the　pastoral　one；　from　the　pastoral　to　the　agricultural；



and　from　agriculture　to　the　first　beginnings　in　manufacture　and



navigation；　is　effected　most　speedily　and　advantageously　by　means



of　free　commerce　with　further　advanced　towns　and　countries；　but



that　a　perfectly　developed　manufacturing　industry；　an　important



mercantile　marine；　and　foreign　trade　on　a　really　large　scale；　can



only　be　attained　by　means　of　the　interposition　of　the　power　of　the



State。



　　　　The　less　any　nation's　agriculture　has　been　perfected；　and　the



more　its　foreign　trade　is　in　want　of　opportunities　of　exchanging



the　excess　of　native　agricultural　products　and　raw　materials　for



foreign　manufactured　goods；　the　deeper　that　the　nation　is　still



sunk　in　barbarism　and　fitted　only　for　an　absolute　monarchical　form



of　government　and　legislation；　the　more　will　free　trade　（i。e。　the



exportation　of　agricultural　products　and　the　importation　of



manufactured　goods）　promote　its　prosperity　and　civilisation。



　　　　On　the　other　hand；　the　more　that　the　agriculture　of　a　nation；



its　industries；　and　its　social；　political；　and　municipal



conditions；　are　thoroughly　developed；　the　less　advantage　will　it　be



able　to　derive　for　the　improvement　of　its　social　conditions；　from



the　exchange　of　native　agricultural　products　and　raw　materials　for



foreign　manufactured　goods；　and　the　greater　disadvantages　will　it



experience　from　the　successful　competition　of　a　foreign



manufacturing　power　superior　to　its　own。



　　　　Solely　in　nations　of　the　latter　kind；　namely；　those　which



possess　all　the　necessary　mental　and　material　conditions　and　means



for　establishing　a　manufacturing　power　of　their　own；　and　of　thereby



attaining　the　highest　degree　of　civilisation；　and　development　of



material　prosperity　and　political　power；　but　which　are　retarded　in



their　progress　by　the　competition　of　a　foreign　manufacturing　power



which　is　already　farther　advanced　than　their　own　　only　in　such



nations　are　commercial　restrictions　justifiable　for　the　purpose　of



establishing　and　protecting　their　own　manufacturing　power；　and　even



in　them　it　is　justifiable　only　until　that　manufacturing　power　is



strong　enough　no　longer　to　have　any　reason　to　fear　foreign



competition；　and　thenceforth　only　so　far　as　may　be　necessary　for



protecting　the　inland　manufacturing　power　in　its　very　roots。



　　　　The　system　of　protection　would　not　merely　be　contrary　to　the



principles　of　cosmopolitical　economy；　but　also　to　the　rightly



understood　advantage　of　the　nation　itself；　were　it　to　exclude



foreign　competition　at　once　and　altogether；　and　thus　isolate　from



other　nations　the　nation　which　is　thus　protected。　If　the



manufacturing　power　to　be　protected　be　still　in　the　first　period　of



its　development；　the　protective　duties　must　be　very　moderate；　they



must　only　rise　gradually　with　the　increase　of　the　mental　and



material　capital；　of　the　technical　abilities　and　spirit　of



enterprise　of　the　nation。　Neither　is　it　at　all　necessary　that　all



branches　of　industry　should　be　protected　in　the　same　degree。　Only



the　most　important　branches　require　special　protection；　for　the



working　of　which　much　outlay　of　capital　in　building　and　management；



much　machinery；　and　therefore　much　technical　knowledge；　skill；　and



experience；　and　many　workmen　are　required；　and　whose　products



belong　to　the　category　of　the　first　necessaries　of　life；　and



consequently　are　of　the　greatest　importance　as　regards　their　total



value　as　well　as　regards　national　independence　（as；　for　example；



cotton；　woollen　and　linen　manufactories；　&c。）。　If　these　main



branches　are　suitably　protected　and　developed；　all　other　less



important　branches　of　manufacture　will　rise　up　around　them　under　a



less　degree　of　protection。　It　will　be　to　the　advantage　of　nations



in　which　wages　are　high；　and　whose　population　is　not　yet　great　in



proportion　to　the　extent　of　their　territory；　e。g。　in　the　United



States　of　North　America；　to　give　less　protection　to　manufactures　in



which　machinery　does　not　play　an　important　part；　than　to　those　in



which　machinery　does　the　greater　part　of　the　work；　providing　that



those　nations　which　supply　them　with　similar　goods　allow　in　return



free　importation　to　their　agricultural　products。



　　　　The　popular　school　betrays　an　utter　misconception　of　the　nature



of　national　economical　conditions　if　it　believes　that　such　nations



can　promote　and　further　their　civilisation；　their　prosperity；　and



especially　their　social　progress；　equally　well　by　the　exchange　of



agricultural　products　for　manufactured　goods；　as　by　establishing　a



manufacturing　power　of　their　own。　A　mere　agricultural　nation　can



never　develop　to　any　considerable　extent　its　home　and　foreign



commerce；　its　inland　means　of　transport；　and　its　foreign



navigation；　increase　its　population　in　due　proportion　to　their



wellbeing；　or　make　notable　progress　in　its　moral；　intellectual；



social；　and　political　development：　it　will　never　acquire　important



political　power；　or　be　placed　in　a　position　to　influence　the



cultivation　and　progress　of　less　advanced　nations　and　to　form



colonies　of　its　own。　A　mere　agricultural　State　is　an　infinitely



less　perfect　institution　than　an　agricultural　manufacturing　State。



The　former　is　always　more　or　less　economically　and　politically



dependent　on　those　foreign　nations　which　take　from　it　agricultural



products　in　exchange　for　manufactured　goods。　It　cannot　determine



for　itself　how　much　it　will　produce；　it　must　wait　and　see　how　much



others　will　buy　from　it。　These　latter；　on　the　contrary　（the



agricultural…manufacturing　States）；　produce　for　themselves　large



quantities　of　raw　materials　and　provisions；　and　supply　merely　the



deficiency　by　importation　from　the　purely　agricultural　nations。　The



purely　agricultural　nations　are　thus　in　the　first　place　dependent



for　their　power　of　effecting　sales　on　the　chances　of　a　more　or　less



plentiful　harvest　in　the　agricultural…manufacturing　nations；　in　the



next　place　they　have　to　compete　in　these　sales　with　other　purely



agricultural　nations；　whereby　their　power　of　sale；　in　itself　very



uncertain；　thus　becomes　still　more　uncertain。　Lastly；　they　are



exposed　to　the　danger　of　being　totally　ruined　in　their　trading　with



foreign　manufacturing　nations　by　wars；　or　new　foreign　tariff



regulations　whereby　they　suffer　the　double　disadvantage　of　finding



no　buyers　for　their　surplus　agricultural　products；　and　of　failing



to　obtain　supplies　of　the　manufactured　goods　which　they　require。　An



agricultural　nation　is；　as　we　have　already　stated；　an　individual



with　one　arm；　who　makes　use　of　a　foreign　arm；　but　who　cannot　make



sure　of　the　use　of　it　in　all　cases；　an　agricultural…manufacturing



nation　is　an　individual　who　has　two　arms　of　his　own　always　at　his



disposal。



　　　　It　is　a　fundamental　error　of　the　school　when　it　represents　the



system　of　protection　as　a　mere　device　of　speculative　politicians



which　is　contrary　to　nature。　History　is　there　to　prove　that



protective　regulations　originated　either　in　the　natural　efforts　of



nations　to　attain　to　prosperity；　independence；　and　power；　or　in



consequence　of　wars　and　of　the　hostile　commercial　legislation　of



predominating　manufacturing　nations。



　　　　The　idea　of　independence　and　power　originates　in　the　very　idea



of　'the　nation。'　The　school　never　takes　this　into　consideration；



because　it　does　not　make　the　economy　of　the　separate　nation；　but



the　economy　of　society　generally；　i。e。　of　the　whole　human