a history of science-2-第25部分

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c　mind　predictions　of　earthly　events　would　surely　seem　no　more　miraculous　than　correct　predictions　as　to　the　future　movements　of　the　sun；　moon；　and　stars。　When　astronomy　had　reached　a　stage　of　development　so　that　such　things　as　eclipses　could　be　predicted　with　anything　like　accuracy；　the　occult　knowledge　of　the　astronomer　would　be　unquestioned。　Turning　this　apparently　occult　knowledge　to　account　in　a　mercenary　way　would　then　be　the　inevitable　result；　although　it　cannot　be　doubted　that　many　of　the　astrologers；　in　all　ages；　were　sincere　in　their　beliefs。　Later；　as　the　business　of　astrology　became　a　profitable　one；　sincere　astronomers　would　find　it　expedient　to　practise　astrology　as　a　means　of　gaining　a　livelihood。　Such　a　philosopher　as　Kepler　freely　admitted　that　he　practised　astrology　〃to　keep　from　starving；〃　although　he　confessed　no　faith　in　such　predictions。　〃Ye　otherwise　philosophers；〃　he　said；　〃ye　censure　this　daughter　of　astronomy　beyond　her　deserts；　know　ye　not　that　she　must　support　her　mother　by　her　charms。〃　Once　astrology　had　become　an　established　practice；　any　considerable　knowledge　of　astronomy　was　unnecessary；　for　as　it　was　at　best　but　a　system　of　good　guessing　as　to　future　events；　clever　impostors　could　thrive　equally　well　without　troubling　to　study　astronomy。　The　celebrated　astrologers；　however；　were　usually　astronomers　as　well；　and　undoubtedly　based　many　of　their　predictions　on　the　position　and　movements　of　the　heavenly　bodies。　Thus；　the　casting　of　a　horoscope　that　is；　the　methods　by　which　the　astrologers　ascertained　the　relative　position　of　the　heavenly　bodies　at　the　time　of　a　birthwas　a　simple　but　fairly　exact　procedure。　Its　basis　was　the　zodiac；　or　the　path　traced　by　the　sun　in　his　yearly　course　through　certain　constellations。　At　the　moment　of　the　birth　of　a　child；　the　first　care　of　the　astrologer　was　to　note　the　particular　part　of　the　zodiac　that　appeared　on　the　horizon。　The　zodiac　was　then　divided　into　〃houses〃that　is；　into　twelve　spaceson　a　chart。　In　these　houses　were　inserted　the　places　of　the　planets；　sun；　and　moon；　with　reference　to　the　zodiac。　When　this　chart　was　completed　it　made　a　fairly　correct　diagram　of　the　heavens　and　the　position　of　the　heavenly　bodies　as　they　would　appear　to　a　person　standing　at　the　place　of　birth　at　a　certain　time。　Up　to　this　point　the　process　was　a　simple　one　of　astronomy。　But　the　next　stepthe　really　important　onethat　of　interpreting　this　chart；　was　the　one　which　called　forth　the　skill　and　imagination　of　the　astrologer。　In　this　interpretation；　not　in　his　mere　observations；　lay　the　secret　of　his　success。　Nor　did　his　task　cease　with　simply　foretelling　future　events　that　were　to　happen　in　the　life　of　the　newly　born　infant。　He　must　not　only　point　out　the　dangers；　but　show　the　means　whereby　they　could　be　averted；　and　his　prophylactic　measures；　like　his　predictions；　were　alleged　to　be　based　on　his　reading　of　the　stars。　But　casting　a　horoscope　at　the　time　of　births　was；　of　course；　only　a　small　part　of　the　astrologer's　duty。　His　offices　were　sought　by　persons　of　all　ages　for　predictions　as　to　their　futures；　the　movements　of　an　enemy；　where　to　find　stolen　goods；　and　a　host　of　everyday　occurrences。　In　such　cases　it　is　more　than　probable　that　the　astrologers　did　very　little　consulting　of　the　stars　in　making　their　predictions。　They　became　expert　physiognomists　and　excellent　judges　of　human　nature；　and　were　thus　able　to　foretell　futures　with　the　same　shrewdness　and　by　the　same　methods　as　the　modern　〃mediums；〃　palmists；　and　fortune…tellers。　To　strengthen　belief　in　their　powers；　it　became　a　common　thing　for　some　supposedly　lost　document　of　the　astrologer　to　be　mysteriously　discovered　after　an　important　event；　this　document　purporting　to　foretell　this　very　event。　It　was　also　a　common　practice　with　astrologers　to　retain；　or　have　access　to；　their　original　charts；　cleverly　altering　them　from　time　to　time　to　fit　conditions。　The　dangers　attendant　upon　astrology　were　of　such　a　nature　that　the　lot　of　the　astrologer　was　likely　to　prove　anything　but　an　enviable　one。　As　in　the　case　of　the　alchemist；　the　greater　the　reputation　of　an　astrologer　the　greater　dangers　he　was　likely　to　fall　into。　If　he　became　so　famous　that　he　was　employed　by　kings　or　noblemen；　his　too　true　or　too　false　prophecies　were　likely　to　bring　him　into　disreputeeven　to　endanger　his　life。　Throughout　the　dark　age　the　astrologers　flourished；　but　the　sixteenth　and　seventeenth　centuries　were　the　golden　age　of　these　impostors。　A　skilful　astrologer　was　as　much　an　essential　to　the　government　as　the　highest　official；　and　it　would　have　been　a　bold　monarch；　indeed；　who　would　undertake　any　expedition　of　importance　unless　sanctioned　by　the　governing　stars　as　interpreted　by　these　officials。　It　should　not　be　understood；　however；　that　belief　in　astrology　died　with　the　advent　of　the　Copernican　doctrine。　It　did　become　separated　from　astronomy　very　shortly　after；　to　be　sure；　and　undoubtedly　among　the　scientists　it　lost　much　of　its　prestige。　But　it　cannot　be　considered　as　entirely　passed　away；　even　to…day；　and　even　if　we　leave　out　of　consideration　street…corner　〃astrologers〃　and　fortune…tellers；　whose　signs　may　be　seen　in　every　large　city；　there　still　remains　quite　a　large　class　of　relatively　intelligent　people　who　believe　in　what　they　call　〃the　science　of　astrology。〃　Needless　to　say；　such　people　are　not　found　among　the　scientific　thinkers；　but　it　is　significant　that　scarcely　a　year　passes　that　some　book　or　pamphlet　is　not　published　by　some　ardent　believer　in　astrology；　attempting　to　prove　by　the　illogical　dogmas　characteristic　of　unscientific　thinkers　that　astrology　is　a　science。　The　arguments　contained　in　these　pamphlets　are　very　much　the　same　as　those　of　the　astrologers　three　hundred　years　ago；　except　that　they　lack　the　quaint　form　of　wording　which　is　one　of　the　features　that　lends　interest　to　the　older　documents。　These　pamphlets　need　not　be　taken　seriously；　but　they　are　interesting　as　exemplifying　how　difficult　it　is；　even　in　an　age　of　science；　to　entirely　stamp　out　firmly　established　superstitions。　Here　are　some　of　the　arguments　advanced　in　defence　of　astrology；　taken　from　a　little　brochure　entitled　〃Astrology　Vindicated；〃　published　in　1898：　It　will　be　found　that　a　person　born　when　the　Sun　is　in　twenty　degrees　Scorpio　has　the　left　ear　as　his　exceptional　feature　and　the　nose　（Sagittarius）　bent　towards　the　left　ear。　A　person　born　when　the　Sun　is　in　any　of　the　latter　degrees　of　Taurus；　say　the　twenty…fifth　degree；　will　have　a　small；　sharp；　weak　chin；　curved　up　towards　Gemini；　the　two　vertical　lines　on　the　upper　lip。〃＇4＇　The　time　was　when　science　went　out　of　its　way　to　prove　that　such　statements　were　untrue；　but　that　time　is　past；　and　such　writers　are　usually　classed　among　those　energetic　but　misguided　persons　who　are　unable　to　distinguish　between　logic　and　sophistry。

In　England；　from　the　time　of　Elizabeth　to　the　reign　of　William　and　Mary；　judicial　astrology　was　at　its　height。　After　the　great　London　fire；　in　1666；　a　committee　of　the　House　of　Commons　publicly　summoned　the　famous　astrologer；　Lilly；　to　come　before　Parliament　and　report　to　them　on　his　alleged　prediction　of　the　calamity　that　had　befallen　the　city。　Lilly；　for　some　reason　best　known　to　himself；　denied　having　made　such　a　prediction；　being；　as　he　explained；　〃more　interested　in　determining　affairs　of　much　more　importance　to　the　future　welfare　of　the　country。〃　Some　of　the　explanations　of　his　interpretations　will　suffice　to　show　their　absurdities；　which；　however；　were　by　no　means　regarded　as　absurdities　at　that　time；　for　Lilly　was　one　of　the　greatest　astrologers　of　his　day。　He　said　that　in　1588　a　prophecy　had　been　printed　in　Greek　characters　which　foretold　exactly　the　troubles　of　England　between　the　years　1641。　and　1660。　〃And　after　him　shall　come　a　dreadful　dead　man；〃　ran　the　prophecy；　〃and　with　him　a　royal　G　of　the　best　blood　in　the　world；　and　he　shall　have　the　crown　and　shall　set　England　on　the　right　way　and　put　out　all　heresies。　His　interpretation　of　this　was　that；　〃Monkery　being　extinguished　above　eighty　or　ninety　years；　and　the　Lord　General's　name　being　Monk；　is　the　dead　man。　The　royal　G　or　C　（it　is　gamma　in　the　Greek；　intending　C　in　the　Latin；　being　the　third　letter　in　the　alphabet）　is　Charles　II。；　who；　for　his　extraction；　may　be　said　to　be　of　the　best　blood　of　the　world。〃＇5＇　This　may　be　taken　as　a　fair　sample　of　Lilly's　interpretations　of　astrological　prophesies；　but　many　of　his　own　writings；　while　somewhat　more　definite　and　direct；　are　still　left　sufficiently　vague　to　allow　his　skilful　interpretations　to　set　right　an　apparent　mistake。　One　of　his　famous　documents　was　〃The　Starry　Messenger；〃　a　little　pamphlet　purporting　to　explain　the　phenomenon　of　a　〃strange　apparition　of　three　suns〃　that　were　seen　in　London　on　November　19；　1644…the　anniversary　of　the　birth　of　Charles　I。；　then　the　reigning　monarch。　This　phenomenon　caused　a　great　stir　among　the　English　astrologers；　coming；　as　it　did；　at　a　time　of　great　political　disturbance。　Prophecies　were　numerous；　and　Lilly's　brochure　is　only　one　of　many　that　appeared　at　that　time；　most　of　which；　however；　have　been　lost。　Lilly；　in　his　preface；　says：　〃If　there　be　any　of　so　prevaricate　a　judgment　as　to　think　that　the　apparition　of　these　three　Suns　doth　intimate　no　Nov